|
Archive for the ‘Statistics’ CategoryLife Is A Numbers GameThursday, March 31st, 2011
In his first Thursday Night Insight, Kyle Cockett examines the dangers of taking statistics at face value. Although I have only been working in the field of market research for a relatively short length of time, I have quickly realised the value of a well executed piece of quantitative research. When correctly designed, using a valid, reliable sample, quantitative research can be used to provide clients with strong conclusive findings, often enhanced by the use of inferential statistical techniques. Correlation analysis, CHAID analysis and factor analysis are all examples of such techniques that can add value to the overall conclusion, for example, to prove or disprove a prior hypothesis the client holds, such as ‘is group x significantly more satisfied than group y’ etc. Almost every day we come across the findings of various types of research reported in the media, often on a range of weird and wonderful topics – but how many of us actually question the research method utilised and where the findings have come from? Recently a story made the national news concerning a Plymouth school teacher – Richard Gribble – who found that pupils were finding it increasingly difficult to concentrate in class. The headline read: Children addicted to computer games ‘unfit for school’ The headline was augmented by a passage of text which stated that ‘games addicted children are missing meals, talking about computer games during lesson times, tired and show poor concentration according to new research’. Upon investigating the story further, I found that the same damning verdict on our nation’s children was delivered by several other media outlets, one, reporting that ‘primary pupils are falling asleep at their desks after playing computer games until 4am’. It was only on delving deeper into the article that it revealed that the sample size of the research was in fact Mr Gribble’s own primary school class of 26 pupils – hardly representative of the population sample, especially when the National Office of Statistics estimates there are around 11.5 million under sixteen year olds! Unfortunately this point appeared to be lost to the majority of online commentators, for whom the power of the headline overshadowed the reliability and validity of the methodology used to arrive at the finding. Indeed, it seems that the famous Albert Einstein quote ‘if the facts don’t fit the theory, change the facts’ has become all too literal when it comes to general media reporting of research findings. In fact, the National Health Service has now dedicated the news section of their website to investigating and reporting the statistical significance and causality between many of the tenuous links often reported in the media – can saucepans really cause early menopause? Can a pill cure your fear of heights? Is breastfeeding linked to school grades?  Michael Blastland, writing in his ‘Go Figure’ column for the BBC, perfectly sums up the problem of taking numbers at face value without reading between the lines. Take a look at the picture above. The picture was taken just prior to the general election. It shows a well known potato crisp company handing out free packets of crisps displaying the image of the three prospective prime ministers. Ostensibly, on face value the image implies that Nick Clegg is the most popular of the three candidates; based on the seeming popularity of his bags of crisps, depicted by the emptiest bin. We might be surprised by this, but at the same time, question why the image would lie? However, further thought raises a number of competing explanations; has the Gordon Brown bin just been refilled? Are the crisps different flavours, with Nick Clegg’s the most popular flavour? Which candidate was supplied with the most boxes of crisps initially? I guess the point I am trying to make is that anybody can take numbers at face value. Blastland himself professes that ‘clever people – and newspapers and politicians – say outrageously daft things, often, with them and about them’. However, without some form of added insight, figures in their own right are often of little value. Click here to find out how you can use statistical techniques to add value to your research project at B2B International. The Growth of Global B2B SpendingWednesday, November 11th, 2009 
Visa Inc. has just released its annual global Commercial Consumption Expenditure (CCE) index, which is recognized as an industry benchmark for measuring commercial spending globally. This year’s index estimates that global commercial spending grew to $90.2 trillion in 2008 – up 11% from 2007’s CCE index. According to the survey, the fastest-growing area was Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa. Across these regions, b-to-b expenditure grew by almost a quarter (23.7%) to $7.4 trillion. Latin America/Caribbean also experienced significant growth in business spending of 17.4% (to $5 trillion). Although ‘only’ seeing a 9.6% rise on 2007 business spending, Western Europe remains the biggest spending region – some $31.9 trillion. B-to-b spending in Asia-Pacific this year, at $23.4 trillion (13.5% growth), exceeded that of the U.S. ($20.3 trillion, or 5.3% year-on-year growth) for the first time. 84% of the Asia-Pacific total was made up of the region’s major economies – China (US$7.2 trillion), Japan (US$6.2 trillion), India (US$2.7 trillion), South Korea (US$2.1 trillion) and Australia (US$1.5 trillion) – although it was many of Asia’s emerging markets which experienced the strongest growth – Myanmar (40.3%), Sri Lanka (33.1%), Papua New Guinea (31.3%), Vietnam (29.4%) and China (28.3%). The CCE index captures business-to-business purchases to acquire goods and services used in production, wholesale and retail purchases of final goods, business capital expenditures and government spending on goods and services. Feelings and forecastFriday, August 14th, 2009
With so many people interested in the state of the economy, Alaric Fairbanks this week takes a look at some of the more unusual indicators which may tell us whether prospects are looking up. Even – perhaps especially – here in Beijing, as elsewhere, not a day goes by without mention of the economy and how quickly it will recover or not. Supplementary to this are the business confidence or climate surveys and their subsequent reports of optimism and pessimism. These are all very well, and may be a good source of column inches or publicity for a research company. This is all OK with me but, even if reflective of whatever business community or industry sector’s level of confidence, it is perhaps worth thinking about which sources of information are behind, say, agreement with a statement expecting an increase in profit, revenue, headcount, etc. From examples I have seen, including, I confess, a climate survey we conducted, there is little attention paid to the sources of information upon which these feelings are based. When it does appear, it is usually a choice of ‘respectable’ sources, such as newspapers, journals, or official statistics. Less expected or rational influences are often overlooked and, even if included in the question set, a respondent may not admit to having been influenced by an alternative or informal source. Of course, it would be great for our business if businesspeople took tailored market research as their main source of guidance for decisions and even opinions, but as this is not always the case, I was curious as to what observations people were making to inform their levels of confidence. To this end we spoke informally to contacts in the Western business community about any indicators used to reflect on their business prospects. A common theme emerged around indicators being derived from the physical environment, especially through observation. A simple example of an informal indicator was counting or estimating the number of new building sites passed on the way to work – the more new sites, the stronger the economic prospects. These conversations suggested that observations were aimed at levels of activity. They tended be a mixture of fairly Beijing-specific and the more general. Observed indicators from work and life in Beijing with a perceived positive correlation included:
And with a perceived negative correlation:
Interestingly, although not all of these are anecdotally based, they all appear to have some underlying rationale. It would be interesting, at least to me, to look into how effective these indicators really are… but things are fairly hectic here at the moment, what with projects, proposals, etc – another way of showing how things are going right now! 96% Fat FreeFriday, January 23rd, 2009
Numbers and statistics are quoted at us all the time but how often do we stop to think about what they really mean before we’re drawn in by them? Outside a farm shop a mile or so from where I live, I saw a sign which was advertising fresh milk for sale. This was no ordinary milk. In fact it was very special 96% fat free milk. For a split second I thought about it, was impressed, and then realised it was effectively ‘full fat’ milk. The way in which the information was presented made all the difference. The impact of the sign was as much about what it didn’t say as what it did. The same can be said of the stores on the high street that are trying their hardest to get us to part with our money at the moment, and sales signs are in every store (or at least it seems that way). I’ve seen many signs offering up to 50% off, but what does this really mean? Perhaps this is a little cynical but an alternative sales sign could read… “Up to 50% off items in store, well to be honest most items have 15% off. It’s the 4 items that nobody wants and that we’ve been trying to sell for 6 months that have 50% off”. Judging by a story in my local newspaper, it seems that some of the shoppers hoping to pick up a bargain at the closing Woolworths store left with thoughts not too dissimilar from my alternative sign. No one can deny that 50% off is a very tempting offer on the face of it, but my alternative sign may be more representative of the reality of what awaits the shopper. There is a serious point here and it is that numbers can be made to say or infer almost anything you like. In market research, different messages can be shown depending on how the numbers are presented and indeed which numbers are presented. Even something as seemingly simple as indicating a typical respondent or trend isn’t as straight forward as is often assumed. Is it better to depict the “typical” respondent with the mean or median? How often are we told what the average person thinks without being told whether that figure has been taken from the mean or median? Working in data processing, I spend a large proportion of my day working with numbers, whether it is column locations, frequency counts or checking that the figures in the tables are presented well. Not only do I put the effort into getting the raw data into table format, I spend equally as much effort in making sure those figures are correct. I want to be confident that this effort is not wasted and that the figures are being used in the most appropriate way. Just like the sales signs I saw in the Woolworths shop windows, reading something into the figures that isn’t really there is all too easy.The ability to sift through the sea of information that a quantitative project can generate, be able to pick out what is relevant and interesting, and be able to apply the correct conclusions based on those numbers, is a real skill. It is an important skill in market research, and one that should not be underestimated. |
|
