Archive for the ‘Carol Ann Morgan’ Category

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Spotting the Changes

In this week’s Thursday Night Insight, Carol-Ann Morgan assesses what is now driving buying decisions

I simply cannot make up my mind! Do I want to move house or not? I have been looking around now for more years than I care to count, but it appears there is a forcefield around my house stopping me from moving. I have been through all the logical processes; compiling lists of the pros and the cons of moving, the things I will miss about where I am and the things I will gain by going elsewhere, identifying the benefits versus the costs of making the shift etc etc. Still status quo! I simply cannot make the decision, and the prevailing economic circumstances over the past 3 years have not helped. The media has taken on the role of my superego; tapping me on the shoulder, reminding of the uncertainty of the future, and the potential risks.

Decision making is not an exact science, though many have tried to unravel the rationale behind it. Indeed, decision science is a discipline on its own. And yet, when faced with making decisions of mini or magnitude, it all appears very personal, linked to the emotions and attitude towards risk.

However, we cannot ignore the current conditions and cultural influences on decision making. In the current economically challenged times, there is a permanent under/overtone of prudence. It is apparent at a high political level, at business practice level and at a personal level. It is pervasive, and, to me, feels as though it is impacting on everyone, regardless of their economic need for it to do so. Governments, businesses and individuals are tightening their belts.

In more affluent times, we think less of cost, possibly attaching a higher value to those aspects of our purchases which are not associated so closely with “hard” product – we value the “nice to have’s”, the “delight” factors, the things that say something about us, or make life easier/better for us. Could it be that in difficult or uncertain times, we feel the need to wear the hair shirt, simply to remind us that we do not know what is around the corner; a fear that we may not always be able to afford the fabric conditioner? Buying decisions at these times, therefore, appear to answer to the practical, rather to than the pleasure. Freud might have said that the ego and superego are holding the balance of power over the id.

Changing consumer attitudes towards cost impacts on buying practices right down the supply chain. With this shift, there is an imperative for suppliers and organisations to understand what is driving buying decisions now, from buyers of the end product down to buyers of raw materials. It is important to know what the key driving factors are, how these have changed, where priorities lie, how customers are reacting to current conditions, and how they are planning for a healthy recovery. Old priorities can no longer be assumed. The supplier that has up-to-date understanding about its customers and its markets is better placed to meet needs now, and in the coming years.

You might ask what this has to do with my own decision about the house move; well, no doubt my situation will rumble on until times pick up and I run out of excuses for my indecision. Either that or there emerges a winner in the battle between my id, ego and superego!

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How Lazy Are You? – Decision Making and the Lazy User Model

On her latest adventure for TNI, Carol-Ann Morgan sets off in search of the Holy Grail, deciphering the complicated codes left by the puzzling world of decision makers.

Market researchers spend much of their time working on projects which seek to understand how buying decisions are made. There is no shortage of literature on the subject – academics have equally been seeking the answer to this all important question through their research. However, the nagging question at the back of everyone’s mind is whether or not we are chasing the unattainable – the Holy Grail. There are actually so many variables at play, and each decision maker puts them together in different ways for different decisions; based on the context and the relative importance of the decision. Additionally, how much of rationalisation of our decision is actually put in place post decision-making in order to maintain our own self image, equilibrium and esteem. All of these issues, well documented as they may be, have troubled me for years.

In my search for the holy grail (the answer is out there!) I came across the “Lazy User Model”. It rang true to so many decision makers I have spoken to throughout my career. The model, relatively recently developed (2007), tries to explain how an individual selects a solution to fulfill a need from a set of possible solution alternatives. The central tenet is that the user will select the solution which carries the least effort on the part of the user.

The starting point is the user need; only solutions which meet 100% of the needs are considered, thereby avoiding any wasted effort on solutions which require compromise. Coupled with this, only solutions which suit the user state ie the position of the user at the time, are considered. The user then limits consideration only to those solutions which are plausible. The user then chooses the least effort solution from the plausible options. Effort can be defined as the combination of cost (£) and time, plus the physical and mental effort required.

“My hypothesis is that it is that combination (lowest level of effort) that is, by far, the most important driver in determining how we select products / services from the “list” of choices that we have.” (Collan, M., 2007)

Fig 1: The Lazy User Model of Solution Selection

Collan and Tetford (2007, Lazy User Behaviour) developed their model with consumers and their selection of mobile phones and other technology related products in mind. I have observed this phenomenon amongst B2B decision makers when recounting, their approach to choosing new suppliers and new products during research focus groups and interviews. A degree of post rationalisation of decisions can mask this practice, but on closer examination of the data, it can be recognised.

They say no one ever got sacked for choosing IBM (or any well known, reputable brand for that matter), therefore, an aversion to changing anything that either works, or “should” work, could be a factor facilitating adoption of this model. Maybe if market researchers could establish a respondents’ attitude towards risk, and their effort expended on decision making it may throw more light on just how and why B2B decision makers choose new suppliers and adopt new products.

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Keeping Your Ear To The Ground

Consulting with stakeholders has become increasingly popular, as both the public and the private sector apply principles of good governance to the way they operate. There is recognition that in order to maximise an organisation or a company’s success, it needs to look both inward and outward at those who are affected by the decisions it takes and the products it develops.

Many projects involve revisiting stakeholders after a period of time, using the relationship to maximum value to evaluate reactions to actions and to track perceptions. Corporations following this pattern are more likely to operate in harmony with those who are affected by their actions or who have a vested interest in their success.

Stakeholder consultation is therefore important insurance for the long-term effectiveness of an organisation, enabling it to build sustainable new directions and carry its audiences with it. In the latest white paper from B2B International, Carol-Ann Morgan makes the point that carrying out stakeholder research not only makes for a more informed, reflexive organisation that is responsive to the needs of its users and in tune with prevailing perceptions but also, with the sharing of both risk and reward that comes from stakeholder support, which corporations cannot afford to engage with their stakeholders?

To read the full white paper click on the following link – Keeping Your Ear To The Ground – Stakeholder Consultation

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Understanding the Impact and Effect

In her latest Thursday Night Insight, Carol-Ann Morgan points out that our best intentions are not always quite as well received as we might hope.

In 1687, Sir Isaac Newton compiled his three laws of motion. The third law is commonly reported as…

 
“To every action there is an equal and opposite reaction”

 
Whilst these are physical laws governing relationships between the forces acting on a body and the motion of the body, and concern acceleration and mass, I wonder if Sir Isaac realised the full potential of his laws in the social and political arena.

The environmental story has been hovering around the top of the political agenda for some time now and, consequently, there is considerable attention given to the issues being debated in the press. However, we are having trouble grasping the arguments, as they are so equivocally defined and incalculable to the man on the street. Whilst experts argue amongst themselves as to the level of influence from our behaviours, and even the value of action, most of us are left confused as to what we should do next.

Excited by the idea of developing alternative fuels which reduce harmful emissions into the atmosphere and potentially threaten the long-term future of the planet, the growth of some crop-based biofuels has now been shown to carry some responsibility for recent global food shortages. Similarly, engines developed to reduce emissions appear to have created social tensions and increasing hardship amongst communities living and working around the platinum mines.

Examples such as these can be found all around us, and they demonstrate that there can be counter-reactions to most of our actions, particularly so in the commercial environment. These counter-reactions can be both positive and negative; delivering business opportunities or threatening our existing business operations or offerings. This is where research plays a strong role. Testing concepts and new business offerings in the marketplace can throw up any unexpected or unwanted reactions, which then prepare us for the future. Being in possession of this knowledge enables us to take advantage of new opportunities and also mitigate threats to the business.

Change and development are critical to the future of most businesses; spotting the needs of the future before they are in full view, and responding to them, is critical. However, Newton’s law serves to remind us to ensure we are aware of, and give due consideration to, potential unwanted consequences which may be harmful to the future security of our business.

Posted in Business Development, Carol Ann Morgan, Environment, Forecasting, Growth, Market Assesment, Marketing Strategy, Needs, Product Development, Strategic Marketing, Thursday Night Insight |
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The Importance of Considered Critique

E-mail is dying out! Or, at least, that’s if recent research is to be believed. Carol-Ann Morgan, however, in this week’s Thursday Night Insight, reminds us that we can’t always take research findings at face value.

Recently published research tells us that e-mail will be defunct in 10 years’ time in favour of social networking sites, texting and other instant messaging options, and that 98% of people over the age of 65 use e-mail regularly.

I am, at this moment, thinking of all the people I know over the age of 65, and I cannot get these facts past my own “common sense” test. I am wondering if I am in contact with an obscure group of older people who live in some kind of time (or technology) warp, as many of those I know do not even own a computer let alone subscribe to broadband!

So, back to the research. I read on and note that the research was sponsored by a leading broadband supplier and I start to wonder if the research has indeed been conducted using a methodology and a sample which have had some influence on these results. No such sample information is contained in the short article printed in the press. However, it highlights the importance of meaningful and realistic critique of research findings.

In academic research, research critique will centre around the evaluation of reliability and validity for quantitative research, and truthfulness and ‘generalisability’ of qualitative research. However, the starting point of critique, I find, is passing the “common sense” test. As a market researcher, it is one of the first tests applied, and if, on first look, it does not pass this test, it is time for greater scrutiny; of method, of data integrity, of sample. Very little research throws up information which is truly shocking or outside of what we qualitatively observe. The actual figures may be surprising (higher or lower than we thought), but generally, it has to be “believable”; in the framework of experience and understanding for the majority of people.

After this acid test, I tend to use my own research “A” ratings:
 

• Appropriateness
• Authenticity
• Audience
• Applicability

Firstly, I look at the appropriateness of the research approach to address the research aims and objectives. Here, I am essentially looking at whether the best research design has been employed to answer the research questions, be they centred on understanding, exploration and/or measurement. It can be the case that the researcher has made assumptions about the market and thus designed questions which cannot get to the root of the problem, or where the issues are insufficiently well known to design a questionnaire which can measure them.

Appropriateness of method also covers the area of authenticity of the research findings; that is the integrity of the data, and whether this has been compromised by method or by any other factors e.g. sponsors, timing, incentives, etc.

A key area to look at is the research audience. Knowledge of the sample characteristics and source is needed; who is the sample made up of, what is the size of the sample, where has it been sourced, does it include key representative groups, etc? Understanding of any bias which has been introduced though sample selection needs to be taken account of in the interpretation of the research findings. For example, in the above quoted research, if the sample has been accessed from the broadband supplier’s customers, or an online panel of people who have signed up for e-surveys, this may have had some influence on the type of responses gained, and this may not be representative of a completely random group of people.

My final point relates to application; the interpretation of the data and the transferability of the research. The above quoted research purports that e-mail is dying out because “people prefer to send short messages reaching many people in one go and there are better ways of doing this than e-mail”. This may be the case for certain applications, e.g. chat. However, the research fails to take account of the business use of e-mail, which my common sense test tells me is where the greatest application of this media is.

It is the researcher’s job to ensure that all research reported gives sufficient information to the reader to be able to consider the context of any research findings, thereby enabling the reader to consider if, and how, the research findings can be generalised. Considered critique is a necessary part of the research process.

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